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Cybernetics And Systems Analysis
International Theoretical Science Journal
UDC 519.21
T.Y. Ermolieva,1 Y.M. Ermoliev,2 P. Havlík,3 A. Mosnier,4 D. Leclere,5 S. Fritz,6
H. Valin,7 M. Obersteiner,8 S.V. Kyryzyuk,9 O.M. Borodina10

DYNAMIC LINKAGE OF GLOBAL AND LOCAL MODELS FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND USE
PLANNING ACCOUNTING FOR GLOBAL PROJECTIONS FROM GLOBIOM AND LOCAL
FEASIBILITY AND RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS

Abstract. In this paper, in order to conduct research at required spatial resolution, we propose a model fusion involving interlinked calculations of regional projections by a global dynamic model GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and a robust dynamic downscaling model, based on cross-enthropy principle, for deriving spatially resolved projections. The proposed procedure allows incorporating data from satellite images, statistics, expert opinions, as well as data from global land use models. In numerous case studies in China and Ukraine, the approach allowed to estimate local land use and land use change projections correspondingto real trends and expectations. The disaggregated data and projections were used in national models for planning sustainable land use and agricultural development.

Keywords: global land use model, robust downscaling, dynamic model fussion, uncertainities, local land use projections.



FULL TEXT

1 Tatiana Ermolieva,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: ermol@iiasa.ac.at.

2 Yuri Ermoliev,
Academician of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Institute Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Advanced Systems Analysis Program, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: ermoliev@iiasa.ac.at.

3 Petr Havlík ,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: havlik.petr@gmail.com.

4 Alina Mosnier,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: mosnier@iiasa.ac.at.

5 David Leclere,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: leclere@iiasa.ac.at.

6 Steffen Fritz,
PhD, Senior Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: fritz@iiasa.ac.at.

7 Hugo Valin,
PhD, Senior Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: valin@iiasa.ac.at.

8 Michael Obersteiner,
PhD, Program Director, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: oberstei@iiasa.ac.at.

9 Kyryzyuk Sergiy,
senior researcher, Department for economics and policy of agrarian transformations, Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv,
e-mail: kyryzyuk.ief@gmail.com.

10 Olena Borodina,
corresponding member of NAS of Ukraine, Head of Department for economics and policy of agrarian transformations, Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv,
e-mail: olena.borodina@gmail.com.

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