Cybernetics And Systems Analysis
International Theoretical Science
Journal
Abstract. The interdependencies among land use systems at national and global levels motivate the development of advanced systems analysis approaches for integration of land use models operating at different scales. The paper develops novel general approaches based on cross-entropy principle for downscaling aggregate data and projections, which are robust with respect to feasible priors. Robust downscaling methods account for the so-called non-Bayesian uncertainties, i.e., not complete, unobservable, or erroneous information or data. In numerous case studies in China, Ukraine, Brazil, the approaches allowed to derive local development projections of land use and land use change consistently with existing trends and expectations.
Keywords: sustainable development planning, uncertainties, robust downscaling, local-global interdependencies.
Yuri Ermoliev,
Academician of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Institute Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Advanced Systems Analysis Program, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: ermoliev@iiasa.ac.at.
Tatiana Ermolieva,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: ermol@iiasa.ac.at.
Petr Havlík ,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: havlik.petr@gmail.com.
Alina Mosnier,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: mosnier@iiasa.ac.at.
David Leclere,
PhD, Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: leclere@iiasa.ac.at.
Steffen Fritz,
Dr., Senior Research Scholar, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: fritz@iiasa.ac.at.
Michael Obersteiner,
Dr., Program Director, Ecosystems Services and Management Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,
e-mail: oberstei@iiasa.ac.at.
Kyryzyuk Sergiy,
senior researcher, Department for economics and policy of agrarian transformations, Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv,
e-mail: kyryzyuk.ief@gmail.com.
Olena Borodina,
corresponding member of NAS of Ukraine, Head of Department for economics and policy of agrarian transformations, Institute for Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv,
e-mail: olena.borodina@gmail.com.
