UDC 532.22, 004.94
1 St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia
 temp_elf@mail.ru
|
|
MODELING OF SCENARIOS OF COLLAPSE OF THE COMMERCIAL AQUATIC
POPULATIONS OFF THE COAST OF CANADA AND ALASKA
Abstract. In population processes, special situations are rapidly developing, which are difficult to predict and carry out modeling by traditional methods.
The most important nonlinear phenomena for the economy in ecosystems besides outbreaks of forest pests are sudden collapse of stocks of commercial fish populations. According to the out systematic analysis of the data in the dynamics of catches, it turns out that the transition stages of rapid degradation in completely different species of fish and aquatic invertebrates occur in a similar way. We can distinguish the general stages on the way to the collapse of fish resources. Restoration of the already critically depleted aquatic bioresources occurs at different rates. Based on the method of dynamically redefinable hybrid computational structure, we considered situations of collapse that occurred with the crab off the coast of Alaska and northern cod off the coast of the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador. The resulting computational scenarios for the implementation of the collapse consist of three stages up to degradation of the bioresources. Bifurcations are implemented purposefully. The modeling method is generalized for cases with stationary food resources and with oscillatory dynamics of food organisms.
Keywords: hybrid systems, bifurcations, attractor in crisis, simulation of threshold effects, redefined computational structures, collapse of Atlantic cod, degradation of aquatic biological resources, biocybernetics.
FULL TEXT
REFERENCES
- Perevaryukha A.Yu. Continuous model for the devastating oscillation dynamics of local forest pest populations in Canada. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2019. Vol. 55, N 1. P. 141–152.
- Hennigar R. Applying a spruce budworm decision support system to maine: Projecting spruce-fir volume impacts under alternative management and outbreak scenarios. Journal of Forestry. 2011. N 9. P. 332–342.
- Perevaryukha A.Yu. Modeling abrupt changes in population dynamics with two threshold states. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2016. Vol. 52, N 4. P. 623–630.
- Zayats V.M. Construction and analysis of a model of a discrete oscillatory system. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2000. Vol. 36, N 4. P. 610–613.
- Catsigeras E., Enrich H. Persistence of the Feigenbaum attractor in one-parameter families. Communications in Mathematical Physics. 1999. Vol. 207, Iss. 3. P. 621–640.
- Skobelev V.V., Skobelev V.G. Some problems of analysis of hybrid automata. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2018. Vol. 54, N 4. P. 517–526.
- Reznik S.Ya. The influence of density-dependent factors on larval development in native and invasive populations of Harmonia axyridis (Pall.) (Coleoptera, Coccinellidae). Entomological Review. 2017. Vol. 97, Iss. 7. P. 847–852.
- Selezov I.T. Hopf bifurcation in coastal ecogeosystems. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2016. Vol. 52, N 4. P. 546–554.
- Ricker W.E. Stock and recruitment. Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada. 1954. Vol. 11, N 5. P. 559–623.
- Frolov A.N. The beet webworm Loxostege sticticalis l. (Lepidoptera, Crambidae) in the focus of agricultural entomology objectives: The periodicity of pest outbreaks. Entomological Review. 2015. N 2. P. 147–156.
- Veshchev P.V., Guteneva G.I. Efficiency of natural reproduction of sturgeons in the lower Volga under current conditions. Russian Journal of Ecology. 2012. Vol. 43, N 2. P. 142–147.
- Singer D. Stable orbits and bifurcations of the maps on the interval. SIAM Journal of Applied Math. 1978. Vol. 35. P. 260-268.
- Feigenbaum M.J. The transition to aperiodic behavior in turbulent systems. Communications in Mathematical Physics. 1980. Vol. 77, N 1. P. 65–86.
- Roughgarden J., Smith F. Why fisheries collapse and what to do about it. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 1996. Vol. 93. P. 5078–5083.
- Myers R.A. Why do fish stocks collapse? The example of cod in Atlantic Canada. Ecol. Appl. 1997. Vol. 7. P. 91–106.
- Larkin P.A. An epitaph for the concept of Maximum sustained yield. Transac. Amer. Fish. Soc. 1977. Vol. 106, N 1. P. 1–11.
- Barrett R. Population dynamics of the Peruvian anchovy. Mathematical Modelling. 1985. Vol. 6, Iss. 6. P. 525–548.
- Guckenheimer J. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions for one dimensional maps. Communications in Mathematical Physics. 1979. Vol. 70. P. 133–160.
- Sergienko I.V. Main directions in the development of informatics. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 1997. Vol. 33, N 6. P. 757–827.
- Nikitina A.V., Semenyakina A.A. Mathematical modeling of eutrophication processes in Azov Sea on supercomputers. Computational Mathematics and Information Technologies. 2017. N 1. P. 82–101.
- Ponomarev V.I., Andreeva E. M., Shatalin N.V. Group effect in the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar, Lepidoptera, Lymantriidae) related to the population characteristics and food composition. Entomological Review. 2009. Vol. 89, Iss. 3. P. 257–263.
