UDC 303.444
1 Central Scientific and Research Institute of Armaments and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
 kupchyn.artem@ukr.net
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2 Central Scientific and Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
komarvlad@ukr.net
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3 Central Scientific and Research Institute of Armaments and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
borohvostov@icloud.com
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4 Central Scientific and Research Institute of Armaments and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
nikolas200578@gmail.com
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5 Hetman Petro Sahaidachnyi National Ground Forces Academy, Lviv, Ukraine
Kyprinenko@ukr.net
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7 Central Scientific and Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
bogdnr11@gmail.com
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DETERMINING THE ACCURACY OF A FUZZY MODEL OF THE TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
Abstract. The article shows a way to determine the accuracy of prognostic models in the absence of experimental data to compare the simulation results. The developed neural network defines a class of technologies that is compared with the results of the fuzzy model. The accuracy of the model is determined by calculating the root-mean-square error of the simulation and correlation between the results of the fuzzy model and the neural network.
Keywords: technology foresight, modeling error, modeling accuracy, fuzzy logic, neural networks.
FULL TEXT
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