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Cybernetics And Systems Analysis
International Theoretical Science Journal
Volume 59 >>> № 6 NOVEMBER — DECEMBER 2023
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UDC 338.2:338.3:338.4:330.5
V.V. Kulyk1


1 State Educational-Scientific Establishment "The Academy of Financial Management," Kyiv, Ukraine

 volodymyr_kulyk@ukr.net

MODELING THE INTER-INDUSTRY ECONOMY AS A CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE:
GENERATING THE SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY
OF UKRAINE DURING THE WAR AND IN THE POST-WAR RECOVERY

Abstract. The input-output scheme is considered as applied to the analysis of the cross-industry reproduction of the economy of Ukraine as a critical infrastructure in the conditions of war and post-war recovery. A probable scenario of the development of Ukraine’s economy in 2022 has been prepared. The hypothesis of the scenario is that the military economy significantly changes the structure of final consumer spending, which makes it possible to forecast inter-industry relationships, in particular, final spending and output, using the input-output model (Leontief model). An analysis of the sensitivity of elements of final consumer spending was carried out. The methodology for developing scenarios of economic development in the conditions of war and post-war recovery is proposed, taking into account the linearity of the Leontief model, the sensitivity of elements of final consumer spending and the interindustry relationship structure of the Ukraine’s economy in 2019. Prepared materials can be used for scientific and educational purposes to generate various scenarios of final consumer spending in the conditions of war and post-war reconstruction.

Keywords: modeling of inter-industry relations, input-output table, economy of Ukraine, types of economic activity, critical infrastructure, system analysis, formation of economic development scenarios, modeling of critical situations in the economy, final consumption, output.


full text

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