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International Theoretical Science Journal
Volume 61 >>> № 1 JANUARY — FEBRUARY 2025
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DOI 10.34229/KCA2522-9664.25.1.10
UDC 519.863
V.A. Pepelyaev1, A.N. Golodnikov2, N.A. Golodnikova3


1 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

 pepelaev@yahoo.com

2 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

3 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

SIMULATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE YIELD OF WINTER WHEAT
IN THE FOREST-STEPPE AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONE OF UKRAINE (CHERKASY REGION)

Abstract. It is widely believed that climate change will reduce the yield of grain crops. In order to confirm or refute it, the authors carried out the mathematical modeling of the influence of climatic changes on the yield of winter wheat in some areas of the Cherkasy region, located in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. In the first stage, a mathematical model of the dependence of the yield of this crop on air temperature and rainfall was created. In the second stage, a mathematical model of winter wheat yield in one of the considered districts was generated, and calculations were made. The conducted modeling showed that the median of the winter wheat yield distribution function in the Drabiv district in the future period of 2030–2060 will exceed the historical values of this indicator for the period of 2005–2020 with a probability of 0.7. Moreover, with a probability of 0.4, the yield of winter wheat in the Drabiv district in the future period of 2030–2060 will exceed 50.7 c/ha. At the same time, the maximum yield in this area will not exceed 71.4 c/ha.

Keywords: adaptation to climate change, crop productivity, quantile regression, statistical sampling, mathematical model.


full text

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