C&SA | Contents

Volume 62 >>> № 1 JANUARY — FEBRUARY 2026

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UDC 681.5.015:656.078

A.P. Rotshtein
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine;
Lev Academic Center, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel,
rothstei@g.jct.ac.il

A.A. Kashkanov
Vinnytsia National Technical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine,
a.kashkanov@vntu.edu.ua

O.V. Zelinska
Mykhailo Kotsyubinsky Vinnytsia State Pedagogical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine,
o.zelinska@donnu.edu.ua

D.I. Katielnikov
Vinnytsia National Technical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine,
fuzzy2dik@gmail.com

FUZZY SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF GENERALIZED DYNAMIC SYSTEMS

Abstract. The article proposes an approach to integrating a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and the Bellman–Zadeh principle of decision making under uncertainty to select control options for a generalized dynamic system, taking into account the mutual influences of criteria and controlled variables. To coordinate the results of modeling using the FCM and the axiomatics of the Bellman–Zadeh principle, a membership function to perfection is introduced, which ensures the aggregation of the criteria vector by crossing the corresponding fuzzy sets. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example of comparing reliability management scenarios for a road transport enterprise.

Keywords: generalized dynamic system, interaction of variables, scenario modeling, fuzzy cognitive map, Bellman–Zadeh principle, road transport enterprise.

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