Abstract. The author considers the mechanisms to process fuzzy experts’ assessments in forecasting the time and possible solutions of scientific problems. The distribution function of the execution time probability is proposed. This function allows construct the continuous, integral distribution of a random variable on its total domain, based on the aggregate of discrete interval beta-distributions. As the matching measure of the fuzzy assessments, the coefficient of variation of the left and right limits of the time interval is used. The application of the Monte-Carlo method to find the expected expenses for the problem solution is described.

Keywords: prognosis, prognosis graph, aim reaching time, beta-distribution, expertise, experts’ assessments, fuzzy assessment, Monte-Carlo method.