UDC 532.22
1 St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia
 temp_elf@mail.ru
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CONTINUOUS MODEL FOR THE DEVASTATING OSCILLATION DYNAMICS
OF LOCAL FOREST PEST POPULATIONS IN CANADA
Abstract. A sharp and prolonged change in the development of population processes requires the mathematical methods to be improved. Unusual phase changes in the development of mass reproduction of insect species dictates the idea to develop a new model, where not the final form of the asymptotically stable state after bifurcations will be important, but the transitional mode. The phenomenon, which is identified in environmental studies with a population outbreak, in a particular situation is proposed to be considered within the context of a long oscillatory mode, only as a peak of the phase of sharp nonharmonic oscillations. The new dynamic model in the form of a differential equation describes a decreasing pseudoperiodic trajectory of damping of sudden sharp oscillations, which realize a non-bifurcation scenario of spontaneous completion for a particular variant of mass reproduction of the pest. A situation in the two provinces in East Canada are considered as an example.
Keywords: continuous model of the population, explosive dynamics of insects, transient oscillation mode, cycle damping, forest pest outbreaks in Canada.
FULL TEXT
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