UDC 519.233.5
1 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
 knopov1@yahoo.com
|
2 Prydniprovska State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Dnipro, Ukraine
a.s.korkhin@gmail.com
|
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CORONAVIRUS INFECTION DYNAMICS
USING STEPWISE SWITCHING REGRESSION
Abstract. It is proposed to model the coronavirus infection dynamics using switching regression whose switching points are unknown.
The step-by-step process of constructing the regression in time is described. The dynamics of the coronavirus infection in Ukraine is analyzed.
Keywords: regression, switch points, regression parameters, stepwise estimation, infection, coronavirus.
FULL TEXT
REFERENCES
- Bai J., Perron P. Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica. 1998. Vol. 66, N 1. P. 47–78.
- Bai J., Perron P. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2003. Vol. 18, Iss. 1. P. 1–22.
- Casini A., Perron P. Structural breaks in time series. Preprint. Boston University, 2018. URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.03807.
- Bellman R., Roth R. Curve fitting by segmented straight lines. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1969. Vol. 64. P. 1079–1084.
- Korkhin A.S. Constructing a switching regression with unknown switching points. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2018. Vol. 54, N 3. P. 443–455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-018-0045-9.
- Knopov P.S., Korkhin A.S. Continuous-time switching regression method with unknown switching points. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2020. Vol. 56, N 1. P. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10559-020-00222-z.
- Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Ukraine. © Google LLC, 2020.
- Корхин А.С., Минакова Е.П. Компьютерная статистика. Ч. 2. Дніпро: Національний гірничий університет, 2009. 239 с.
- Knopov P.S., Korkhin A.S. Ch. 1. Estimation of regression model parameters with specific constraints. In: Regression Analysis under a Priori Parameter Restrictions. New York: Springer, 2012. P. 1–28.
- Golodnikov A.N., Knopov P.S., Pepelyaev V.A. Estimation of reliability parameters under incomplete primary information. Theory and Decision. 2004. Vol 57, N 4. P. 331–344.
- Mikhalevich V.S., Knopov P.S., Golodnikov A.N. Mathematical models and methods of riks assessment in ecologically hazardous industries. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 1994. Vol. 30, N 2. P. 259–273.
- Ermoliev Yu.M., Knopov P.S. Method of empirical means in stochastic programming problems. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2006. Vol. 42, N 6. P. 773–785.
- Knopov P.S., Pepelyaev V.A. Nonparametric estimate of almost periodic signals. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2007. Vol. 43, N 3. P. 362–367.
- Sergienko I.V., Shylo V.P. Problems of discrete optimization: Challenges and main approaches to solve them. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. 2006. Vol. 42, N 4. P. 465–482.
- Butenko S., Pardalos P., Sergienko I., Shylo V., Stetsyuk P. Estimating the size of correcting codes using extremal graph problems. In: Optimization. Springer Optimization and Its Applications. Pearce C., Hunt E. (Eds.). New York: Springer, 2009. Vol. 32. P. 227–243.
- Chow G.C. Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica. 1960. Vol. 28, N 3. P. 591–605.
- Cox D., Hinckley D. Theoretical statistics. Moscow: Mir, 1978. 560 p.
- Korkhin A.S., Minakova E.P. Computer statistics. Part 1. Dnepropetrovsk: National Mining University, 2008. 239 p.
