C&SA | Contents

Volume 58 >>> № 2 MARCH — APRIL 2022

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UDC 631.153.3:330.131.7

V.A. Pepelyaev,
V. M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
pepelaev@yahoo.com

A.N. Golodnikov,
V. M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

N.A. Golodnikova,
V. M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

RELIABILITY OPTIMIZATION IN PLANT PRODUCTION

Abstract. We consider the problem of optimizing the structure of sown areas taking into account the risk of crop losses. To minimize the risk, we propose to optimize the buffer probability of failure (bPOE), instead of the probability of failure, which is widely used in the theory of reliability. In contrast to the probability of failure, bPOE has more attractive properties: this risk measure is a continuous function that takes into account all the values located in the tail of the crop loss distribution function.

Keywords: bPOE, risk measure, optimization, quantile, the tail of the distribution function, sown area, agricultural culture..

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