UDC 004.82.855’24
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2 National University of "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", Kyiv, Ukraine
 oletsky@ukr.net
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RE-STRUCTURING OF THE MODEL "STATE–PROBABILITY OF CHOICE"
BASED ON PRODUCTS OF STOCHASTIC RECTANGULAR MATRICES
Abstract. To analyze the individual and collective behavior of agents, a "state–probability of choice" model is proposed, based on considering the probabilities of choosing alternatives and using the Markov chain of changes in these probabilities. Further development of the direction associated with modeling the description of the decision-making situation is proposed, which consists in explicitly setting the probabilities of decision-making based on the "state–probability of choice" model, provided that these probabilities can change over time. The proposed structuring of the model based on decomposition consists in the formation of the introduction of clusters of states, which can be provided with meaningful interpretation. The paper considers a two-level system of states, in which the base states correspond to specific probabilities of decision-making, and the states of the second level correspond to groups of states. It is shown that decomposition significantly weakens the factor related to the arbitrariness of the choice of base states. An example is given in which several groups of states are clearly distinguished, among which special attention is paid to the behavior of convinced supporters of certain alternatives, as well as to agents who hesitate.
Keywords: model "state–probability of choice," situation of decision-making, rectangular stochastic matrix, dynamic equilibrium of alternatives.
FULL TEXT
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