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Cybernetics And Systems Analysis
International Theoretical Science Journal
Volume 59 >>> № 6 NOVEMBER — DECEMBER 2023
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UDC 519.863
V.A. Pepelyaev1, A.N. Golodnikov2, N.A. Golodnikova3


1 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

 pepelaev@yahoo.com

2 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

3 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

SIMULATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE YIELD
OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS

Abstract. The problem of modeling the impact of the future climate on the yield of agricultural crops (on the example of spring wheat) is considered. The sources of climatic data and values of agrometeorological indicators for past and future periods were analyzed. A mathematical model of the dependence of the median of the spring wheat yield distribution function on climatic changes was developed using agroclimatic parameters. The calculations were carried out according to this model, and the obtained results were analyzed. The analysis of the results indicates a significant increase in the yield level of spring wheat in 2030–2040 and an increase in the risk of losses of its yield in relation to historical data.

Keywords: climatic parameters, crop capacity, quantile regression, reanalysis, agrometeorological indicators, statistical sampling.


full text

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