DOI
10.34229/KCA2522-9664.24.5.8
UDC 517.9
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2 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
 knopov1@yahoo.com
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MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Abstract. To study the relationship between the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state of the economy, a stochastic model is developed that covers the epidemic and economic blocks and the system of relationships between them. An approach is proposed to analyze the interrelations of economic sectors related to food production, transport chains of their delivery, and the medical sector, using the three-sector Lorenz model. This model combines the described sectors of the economy into a single structure, each of which is considered from the point of view of the level of productivity, the number of jobs, and structural disturbances. Model studies are carried out to analyze the dependence of the dynamics of the pandemic on the initial conditions and parameters for managing the epidemic process and the impact of the pandemic on changes in the balance of supply and demand in sectors of the economy related to food production, transport, and the medical sector.
Keywords: mathematical modeling, spread of COVID-19, deterministic chaos, economic consequences of the pandemic.
full text
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