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International Theoretical Science Journal
Volume 58 >>> № 1 JANUARY — FEBRUARY 2022
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UDC 519.8
V.M. Gorbachuk1, M.S. Dunaievskyi2, A.A. Syrku3, S.-B. Suleimanov4


1 V. M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics,
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

 GorbachukVasyl@netscape.net

2 V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics,
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

 MaxDunaievskyi@gmail.com

3 Main Center of Special Monitoring of the National Space
Facilities Control and Test Center of the State Space
Agency of Ukraine, Gorodok, Zhytomyr region, Ukraine

 saan@ukr.net

4 V. M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics,
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

 sbsuleimanov@gmail.com

SUBSTANTIATION OF THE DIFFUSION MODEL FOR INNOVATION IMPLEMENTATION
AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE PROPAGATION OF VACCINATIONS

Abstract. The article examines in detail the prerequisites and assumptions of the classical Bass model of innovation diffusion in order to apply it to the modeling of topical stochastic processes related to the pandemic. The Bass model has proven its versatility and applicability to various environments. The article presents a thorough mathematical substantiation of the model properties for the purpose of its further development, search of uncertainty parameters and observed variables, based on the theories of evolutionary equations and stochastic processes. The paper provides realistic results of the Bass model parameter estimation for vaccination in Ukraine and Belarus on the weekly data of the first half of 2021 and suggests similar studies for other countries as well as regions and districts of Ukraine.

Keywords: new product, critical mass, pandemic, marketing, health care, stochastic processes.


FULL TEXT

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